Tag Archives: Argentina

Arbitrage and Import Controls in Argentina during the 1950s

1 Reply

Two documents from the US State Department’s archives show how import controls presented opportunities for extraordinary profits during the first Peronist governments.

Following the Second World War, there was a worldwide dollar shortage due to the United States’ high level of self-sufficiency as an agro-industrial behemoth. Governments therefore imposed quantitative controls on imports, in order to ration the available supply of dollars. A study made in 1955 by John Hopkins, an enterprising member of the US Embassy in Buenos Aires, demonstrates how these controls presented fantastic opportunities for arbitrage profits for those who could obtain them.

Continue reading →

Argentina’s Industrial Output, 1876-1913

1 Reply

A new estimate of Argentina’s industrial output suggests a less optimistic view of the country’s ‘golden age’.

In a previous post I discussed a working paper in which I criticised Roberto Cortés Conde’s estimates of Argentina’s industrial output from 1875 to 1913. In a new version of that working paper I have taken the plunge by producing my own index for this period. It suggests a considerably lower rate of industrial growth than is found in the standard optimistic account of the country’s ‘golden age’.

Continue reading →

The Terms of Trade and (Under)development in the Long Nineteenth Century

Leave a reply

The differential impact of improving terms of trade on land-abundant and land-scarce regions provides a framework for understanding the Great Divergence during the long nineteenth century.

In a forthcoming article in the Journal of Latin American Studies I discuss the origins of Argentina’s expansion in the long nineteenth century. It is largely an optimistic account of how globalisation led to progress in this remote part of the world. However, it does have a sting in its tail.

Continue reading →

Was Argentina Really Better Off Than the United States in 1800?

2 Replies

Argentina’s economic history provides yet another example of the problem of Mickey Mouse numbers.

When a prominent economic historian provides a new estimate of something, it is likely that the estimate will be taken at face value. Other economic historians will cite it, so it becomes reified, until it is treated as fact, even when it is little more than fancy. John Coatsworth’s estimate of Argentina’s GDP in 1800 provides an example of this.

Continue reading →

Lies, Damn Lies, and Argentine Industrial Output

4 Replies

An estimate of Argentine industrial output from the 1870s to 1913 illustrates a problem with the New Economic History.

The ‘New Economic History’ has sought to transform the study of history by applying econometric techniques to the past. As such, it has greatly increased the demand for historical statistics. The problem has been the supply, as there simply are not enough good quality data to apply econometric techniques to historical issues.

Continue reading →

Argentina’s Terms-of-Trade Boom, 1780-1913

3 Replies

Argentina’s terms of trade probably improved by more than 2,000 percent during the long nineteenth century.

In a new working paper I report the most important finding of my PhD dissertation. In ‘Resolving the Halperín Paradox: The Terms of Trade and Argentina’s Expansion in the Long Nineteenth Century’ I show that Argentina’s terms of trade improved dramatically during the long nineteenth century.

Continue reading →

The Descent of José Alfredo Martínez de Hoz

Leave a reply

The family history of José Alfredo Martínez de Hoz helps explain the logic of Argentina’s last military dictatorship.

José Alfredo Martínez de Hoz was the product of one of Argentina’s most famous landowning families. As Minister of Economy during the dictatorship of 1976-83, he then became infamous as the architect of an economic programme that left the country racked by stagnation and hyperinflation. To understand why this occurred, it is helpful to look at the origins of the man himself.

Continue reading →

Is the Penn World Table Credible?

Leave a reply

Accepting Argentina’s GDP statistics in the new version of the Penn World Table would require a major rewrite of its post-war history.

Last year the eighth edition of the Penn World Table (PWT) was released to considerable fanfare – indeed, one commentator described it as ‘a special day for all researchers and practitioners of economics‘. Yet its series for Argentina raises more questions than it answers.

Continue reading →

Argentina: Decline or Urbanisation?

5 Replies

Argentina’s apparent decline during the twentieth century is more likely an illusion created by faulty GDP statistics.

Recently the Economist published a front-page feature on ‘The Tragedy of Argentina: A Century of Decline‘. By summarising the current scholarship on the ‘Argentine paradox’, the article demonstrates why the study of the country’s history remains so necessary.

Continue reading →